The Last Post

Last post for the year; I actually was thinking of posting some clever comments on a monthly chart until I remembered the words of Warren Buffett who said (roughly) "the road is littered with the bodies of those who attempted to predict market direction on a macro scale" ( and he would know this year!) or as I have elsewhere so succinctly stated; " who cares what will happen a week from now". Therefore in keeping with the time frame I deal in, here is a 240 minute chart for your perusal, but remember "all opinions are my own, and if you don't follow them you only have yourself to blame!" :-)
Happy New Year!

The Dollar's heavy burden

Regular visitors to this page are already anticipating the end of recent dollar strength, compliments of the kindness of strangers, and a return to a collapsing dollar, as those same strangers scramble to diversify. December 13 marked the 13th rate rise in this tightening cycle, while the current yield inversion tells us this cycle is all but over - and the "Bernanke test" is soon to be upon us.

Nowhere and fast...

Let's have a look at the $DXC today in a daily time frame just to remind ourselves where we've been and where we are likely going... have a close look at momentum, another stand-in for volume in FX markets, and tell me what you think is next. I imagine we will pay lipservice to 90.70 and 90.50 (again) on the way down, and these may make good interim targets. On the other hand, HIA flows have 3 days to run: in case some "last minute shoppers" try to squeeze through the door, you may want to give them room...

Is this chart broken? I think not.

The 240 minute price walks sideways along a 200 ema line that is so flat it appears broken. Lay the blame on low volume, but recognize that this price will have to come to a decision soon, as we are getting squeezed into a bearish descending triangle with all oscillators pointing down.

Phoning it in

Well, yesterday's bearish call on the $DXC could have been phoned in from the easy chair, as today's chart confirms. This shows that reality can't hide behind thin volumes for long. We tested a double "tweezer" top today of resistance confirmed prior to our "Dark Cloud Cover" candle pattern yesterday, before a serious "Bearish Engulfing" pattern ( engulfing no less than 6 candles) sent out a big invitation for the novices to get on board for the ride down - where we will be waiting to sell back to them around 90.20 again. Major confirmation here from oscillators with a MACD signal line cross, and bearish crown formation on the 14 RSI. We are forming a doji here near the 100, 200, and 50 ema so no need to be in a big hurry here...

Dollar Index topping out on thin volume

The 240 minute chart displays a dark cloud cover candle formation as we reached a downtrend line going back to 12/02 with excessive divergence from CCI (shown) and RSI (not shown). Currently sitting below stiff horizontal resistance in the 91.20 area, mortgage the kids, it looks like a short opportunity is upon us...

What the Swissie is saying

If it's really all about supply and demand then have look at the Swissie this morning, albeit on extremely thin volume. CCI is failing to cooperate on this last push as we get even further from the 20 MA

What goes up...

Eurozone hints of multiple rate rises in '06, US Q4 GDP comes in weaker than expected, yesterday's PPI was weak, and new home sales are goosed by discounts... dollar rise was a manipulation of very thin trading flows aided by the transit strike in NY...
What goes up...